Recession warnings from Germany, Brazil, etc.

While the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey has predicted a recession in 2021; there are major economies like Brazil and Germany that could be experiencing a recession in 2019. Other economists believe that there is a 40-45% chance of a recession in 2020. Morgan Stanley economists believe that the recession could happen in 2020; if the trade tensions between China and the US continue to escalate. The last recession in the US was from 2007-2009; and it was given the nickname of 'The Great Recession.' President Trump continues to state that the word 'recession' is inappropriate. Back to Brazil and Germany's recent economic data, Germany saw a 0.1% drop in the April to June period. Europe's largest economy is seeing falling industrial production and orders, which makes it seem the slump is continuing during the 3rd quarter 2019. If Germany experiences a recession in 2019, then the rest of Europe could follow suit. UK and Italy have experienced growth that is negative, throughout 2019. Brazil has seen negative growth in 2019, in GDP numbers. Argentina is in a recession also, and Mexico joins them as another Latin American country in turmoil. Next, Singapore and South Korea are two troubled Asian countries that are showing negative numbers for GDP in 2019. The US-China trade war is hurting Singapore and South Korea. Russia could enter a recession by the end of this year. With these nine countries in recession or on the verge of entering recession, it gives the US a higher chance of entering recession in 2020. Consumer spending is continuing to help the economy grow in the US. If retail sales start to slow, there could be widespread store closings and layoffs in the retail sector. These problems would result in an increase in unemployment. An increase in unemployment would make the consumer stop spending, which could lead to a decrease in GDP in the future. The consumer confidence numbers in a recent Univ. of Michigan survey showed that the consumer is worried about a recession. The recent ISM report showed that manufacturing is growing at 51.2%. This number is above 50, but it went down since June 2019. In this penultimate paragraph, the US election is close to 14 months away. If President Trump loses his re-election bid, will the US go into recession? This question is one major point that the President is trying to tell his supporters. The author of this post is not a Trump supporter, and he is hoping that the democratic party can win the election in November 2020. Trump needs to stop tariffs before 2019 is over. Tariffs are going to hurt the US consumers. In closing, the US consumer needs to be wary of a possibly recession in 2020. Consumers can save up money now, or keep spending to help the economy. Enjoy the picture of the global world map above. Hope the recession does not come until 2020, or 2021. Hope the readers enjoyed this discussion on recession; global growth; and current countries that are experiencing or on the verge of recession.