Thursday, December 27, 2018

EU27 will be different without UK; Brexit may be 'the new norm' on March 29, 2019

Theresa May became Prime Minister of the UK, more than 2.5 years ago. In her tenure, the English people believe that the economy in Britain could worsen if Brexit takes place. Brexit is the portmanteau of Britain and exit. The fundamental question is 'does the British government vote to exit the European Union?'; and May must lead the 2nd biggest economy in Europe during the current tough times. The top five economies in Europe based on GDP Annual Growth rate are Germany (21%), United Kingdom (15%), France (15%), Italy (11%), and Spain (8%). Currently, there are 28 countries in the European Union. The region minus the United Kingdom is referred to as 'EU27.' Next, Britain may leave the EU on March 29, 2019. European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger sees a slim hope that Britain's parliament will vote in favor of the Brexit agreement in January 2019. Theresa May has struck a withdrawal agreement with Brussels, as European Parliament (plus European Commission) is in accord with the UK government on their exit strategy. As for the British economy, the unemployment level in the UK is at the lowest level in 4 decades. The economy in UK is at a stronger risk of going into recession in 2019. In addition, there could be three grim factors of property prices falling, unemployment doubling and inflation spiking if there's 'no Brexit deal.' These three uneasy possibilities could lead to a long recession in the UK region. Another major idea is 'does no Brexit deal mean that the European Union could go into recession in 2019?' The following economies in Europe: Greece and Italy; are in a recession already. The current leaders: Emmanuel Macron of France and Angela Merkel of Germany; are promoting European unity amid the Brexit chaos. The two leaders are trying to bolster each other's countries to make a new budget in the Eurozone work. In closing, the author of this post has constructed three paragraphs of writing based on factual information for the simple reader. This final paragraph is a summary and forward thoughts for the reader to assimilate. Let's say the UK leaves the European Union on March 29, 2019. It will be towards the end of the first quarter of 2019, an additional thought is 'will the other economies of Europe be in recession or are the sister countries of EU producing normal GDP growth?' The author is trying to not see the future, or the next quarter's gdp growth in all economies of the EU in FY2019. Enjoy the picture above of the flags of EU countries. Ciao!!

No comments: